Top 3 Bets Summary
- Full-Time Result: Real Madrid to Win
- Goals Market: Under 3.5 Goals
- Value Play: Real Madrid to Lead at Halftime
Real Madrid vs Athletic Club Match Details
- Location: Madrid, Spain
- Stadium: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
- Date: 23/05/2026
- Kick-off Time: 22:00 SAST
Top 3 Betting Picks for Real Madrid vs Athletic Club
Here are our top Real Madrid vs Athletic Club predictions for the final La Liga matchday, focusing on the most compelling markets with strong data backing.
| Picks | Winner prediction | Type of bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pick 1 | Real Madrid | Full-Time Result | 1.48 |
| Pick 2 | Under 3.5 Goals | Total Goals | N/A |
| Pick 3 | Real Madrid | Halftime Result | 1.90 |
Pick 1: Full-Time Result: Real Madrid to Win @ 1.48
The primary pick is backing Real Madrid to win on their home turf. Los Blancos may have endured a difficult season, but their form at the Santiago Bernabeu remains formidable. This is a value play based on a clear home-field advantage against a struggling opponent.
- Real Madrid have been dominant at home, winning 15 of their 18 La Liga matches at the Bernabeu this season.
- Athletic Club’s away form is dismal, having lost 11 of their 18 matches on the road while conceding an average of 1.83 goals per game.
- Madrid secured a convincing 3-0 victory in the reverse fixture, showcasing their superiority.
Pick 2: Goals Market: Under 3.5 Goals
While Real Madrid possesses significant firepower, the head-to-head history suggests a tighter affair than expected. The data points towards a low-scoring encounter, making Under 3.5 Goals a savvy addition to any bet slip.
- Remarkably, not a single one of the last 13 meetings between these two clubs has featured four or more goals.
- Athletic Club has scored just two goals against Real Madrid in their last five encounters, highlighting their struggles in this fixture.
Pick 3: Value Play: Real Madrid to Lead at Halftime @ 1.90
For bettors seeking better odds, the Halftime Result market offers excellent value. We’re backing Real Madrid to be leading at the 45-minute mark. They are known for starting strong at home, a trend that should continue in their final game in front of their fans.
- Los Blancos have held the lead at halftime in 11 of their 18 home league games this season, scoring 18 first-half goals while conceding only five.
- Conversely, Athletic Club have been behind at the break in seven of their 18 away matches, holding a lead themselves on just two occasions.
Recent Form & Head-to-Head
The recent Real Madrid vs Athletic Club H2H record is heavily one-sided. Real Madrid has won four of the last five meetings, keeping an impressive four clean sheets in the process. Athletic Club’s lone victory came back in December 2024, and they have consistently failed to trouble the Madrid defence since.
Real Madrid enters this clash having lost only one of their last six La Liga games. Athletic, on the other hand, are in a slump, managing just two wins in their last eight league fixtures. This poor run has seen them fall to their worst points tally since the 2018/19 campaign.
| Date | Home Team | Result | Away Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12/2025 | Athletic Club | 0-3 | Real Madrid |
| 20/04/2025 | Real Madrid | 1-0 | Athletic Club |
| 04/12/2024 | Athletic Club | 2-1 | Real Madrid |
| 31/03/2024 | Real Madrid | 2-0 | Athletic Club |
| 12/08/2023 | Athletic Club | 0-2 | Real Madrid |
Tue, 21 Apr (1.64 xG) 2  (1.73 xG) 1 |
Fri, 24 Apr  (1.03 xG) 1 (1.07 xG) 1 |
Sun, 3 May  (1.2 xG) 0 (1.27 xG) 2 |
Sun, 10 May  (1.04 xG) 2 (0.72 xG) 0 |
Thu, 14 May (1.52 xG) 2  (1.01 xG) 0 | |
Sun, 17 May  (0.91 xG) 0 (1.11 xG) 1 | |
Sat, 23 May  | 19:00 |
Tue, 21 Apr (0.66 xG) 1  (1.2 xG) 0 |
Sat, 25 Apr  (1.77 xG) 3 (0.73 xG) 2 |
Sat, 2 May (0.48 xG) 2 (1.18 xG) 4 |
Sun, 10 May (0.97 xG) 0  (1.09 xG) 1 |
Wed, 13 May (0.98 xG) 2 (1.23 xG) 0 | |
Sun, 17 May (2.84 xG) 1  (0.35 xG) 1 | |
Sat, 23 May | 19:00 |
Match Preview: Real Madrid vs Athletic Club
The La Liga season concludes with Real Madrid hosting Athletic Club in a match that is more about pride than points. Locked into second place, Madrid’s players will be determined to give their home supporters a strong finish after a trophyless season. For manager Alvaro Arbeloa, this is his final game before Jose Mourinho takes the helm.
Athletic Club travel to the capital in poor form and with a dreadful historical record at the Bernabeu, having not won there since 2005. With European qualification now a mathematical improbability, the Basque club is playing to salvage some pride and end a disappointing campaign on a positive note. Expect Madrid’s individual quality to be the deciding factor.
Team News & Predicted Lineups
Real Madrid will be without several key players for the season finale. Long-term injuries rule out Rodrygo, Arda Güler, Éder Militão, and Ferland Mendy. Andriy Lunin remains out with an illness, while Federico Valverde and Dani Ceballos are major doubts as they recover from their respective injuries.
Athletic Club’s squad is also depleted. Their attack is blunted by hamstring injuries to Oihan Sancet and Nico Williams. The defence is weakened by an ankle injury to Daniel Vivian and the suspension of Yuri Berchiche for an accumulation of yellow cards.
Real Madrid Predicted Lineup (4-4-2): Courtois; Alaba, Rudiger, Carvajal, Garcia; Pitarch, Tchouameni, Diaz, Bellingham; Vinicius, Mbappe.
Athletic Club Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1): Simon; Alvarez, Laporte, Gorosabel, Boiro; Ruiz de Galarreta, Jauregizar; Berenguer, Navarro, I. Williams; Guruzeta.
| 4David Alaba |
| 6Eduardo Camavinga |
| 12Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 16Gonzalo Garcia |
| 17Raul Asencio |
| 18Álvaro Fernández Carreras |
| 29Javi Navarro |
| 30Franco Mastantuono |
| 43Sergio Mestre |
| 46Álvaro Leiva |
| 47Daniel Mesonero |
| 4Aitor Paredes |
| 6Mikel Vesga |
| 12Jesus Areso |
| 15Inigo Lekue |
| 21Maroan Sannadi |
| 22Nico Serrano |
| 25Urko Izeta |
| 27Alex Padilla |
| 44Selton Sánchez |
| 20Unai Gomez |
| 18Mikel Jauregizar |
18+ , T&Cs apply, Play responsibly