Top 3 Bets Summary
- Match Result: Draw
- Goals Market: Under 2.5 Goals
- Player Prop: Desire Doue to Score Anytime
France vs Italy Match Details
- Location: Paris, France
- Stadium: Stade de France
- Date: 02/10/2026
- Kick-off Time: 20:45 SAST
TTop 3 Betting Picks for France vs Italy
France host Italy on matchday three of the Nations League A Group 1 knowing that a victory would all but guarantee them qualification to the quarter-finals of the competition. France have enjoyed a perfect start to the tournament with two 1-0 wins, while the Azzurri have three points on the table following a 4-1 success in Turkey. Les Blues are favourites, but recent underlying metrics, and Kylian Mbappè’s absence, suggest this might be a low-scoring contest.
| Picks | Winner prediction | Type of bet | Odds |
| Pick 1 | Draw | Full-Time Result | 4.75 |
| Pick 2 | Under 2.5 Goals | Total Goals | 2.70 |
| Pick 3 | Desire Doue to Score | Anytime Goalscorer | 2.87 |
Pick 1: Full-Time Result: Draw
France are heavy favourites by bookmakers, who assign them over 71% chances of victory in the traditional 1X2 market. However at such low odds backing the hosts might be a risky strategy, considering they’re still adapting to their new manager, Zinedine Zidane, style of play.
- Hard fought wins: Despite two 1-0 successes against Turkiye and Belgium, France have not created many scoring opportunities. Les Blues have generated a combined 2.4 expected goals (xG), scoring late in both games.
- Italy’s solid away form: The Azzurri have lost just one of their last 12 away matches within 90 minutes, that was a 3-0 defeat against Norway in June 2025. The Azzurri might not be at their best, but they know they can upset the odds. In fact, they also won 3-1 on their last visit to France in 2024, in the Nations League after the Euros.
- Value Play: At odds of 4.75, backing the Draw is a smart strategy, as a point would likely suit both teams. France, in fact, would stay top of the table ahead of matchday four against Belgium, and Italy would strengthen their third-place position, which would ensure they’ll avoid direct relegation to League B.
Pick 2: Goals Market: Under 2.5 Goals
The absence of Real Madrid’s striker Kylian Mbappe, who picked up an injury against Turkiye in matchday one, is a significant blow for Les Blues. Zidane can count on a wealth of quality options up front, from Michael Olise to Ousmane Dembele, but missing their all-time top scorer will certainly impact France.
- Clean sheets: France were solid against both Belgium and Turkiye, having allowed just 1.9 xGA (expected goals against). No other team in Nations League A has allowed fewer xGA after two matchdays.
- Mbappe’s Absence: Without their main forward, France’s attack loses a lot. Against Belgium, his replacement, Estéban Lepaul, failed to score despite producing 0.54 xG.
- Azzurri’s low-scoring trend: Five of Italy’s last six matches across all competitions have finished with Under 2.5 Goals. Against Turkiye, Roberto Mancini’s men scored four times but overperformed their xG by 2.62, as some of their goals were a gift from the Turkish defence.
Pick 3: Player Prop: Desire Doue to Score Anytime
With Mbappe sidelined, other players must step up for France, and Desire Doue looks poised to be the main threat. He offers great value in the anytime goalscorer market.
- Main Threat: Doue leads the French squad with seven attempts on goal in the Nations League so far, averaging 5.2 shots per 90 minutes. So far, no player in the France squad has had more attempts on goal than the PSG winger.
- Cutting in from the right-hand side: Against Belgium, he was a constant menace, recording 16 touches in the opposition’s penalty area, and he’s likely to be heavily involved in the final third also on Friday night.
- Value bet: Backing Desire Doué to Score Anytime at 2.87 is a good choice. The right-winger has scored three times in 17 games with France, and this season has scored once in seven appearances with his club PSG. In 2025/26, he netted 13 club goals, so he’s likely to score another goal soon.
Recent Form & Head-to-Head
France have made a flawless start to their campaign, taking a maximum six points from two games, following back-to-back 1-0 away victories over Türkiye in Kocaeli and Belgium in Brussels. Against Türkiye, it was Kylian Mbappè who scored the winner, before having to come off injured. On matchday two on Monday, substitute Michael Olise delivered the 88th-minute winner against the Belgians, highlighting the depth that Zinédine Zidane’s side can call upon.
Having won three of their last five matches and finished as joint-highest scorers alongside England at the 2026 World Cup with 20 goals, Les Bleus continue to rely heavily on individual brilliance to break tight defences.
Roberto Mancini registered his first victory following his return as Italy manager with a 4-1 win in Turkiye. A positive result that has revived supporters’ belief that the Euro 2020 winning manager can successfully guide the national side back to major tournament finals at the very least.
While the encouraging scoreline in Bursa provided a boost, assessing the true extent of Italy’s quality remains difficult as Turkiye were largely the architects of their own downfall through a poor first-half performance.
Italy and France met in the previous edition of the Nations League, with both games ending 3-1 for the visitors. Italy won in Paris, but France got their revenge at San Siro. This will be the 40th meeting between these two nations, with Italy holding the edge with 19 successes.
Match Preview: France vs Italy
Zinedine Zidane has made a good start in the France dugout. Thanks to the 1-0 success over Belgium, he has become only the fourth head coach in the history of Les Blues to win his opening two official matches, joining Henri Guérin (1964), Henri Michel (1984), and Aimé Jacquet (1994). Now Zidane is looking to win the most prestigious of these Nations League Group A games, against Italy, a country he knows very well, having spent five seasons playing for Juventus.
France will face an Italy side also under new management, with Roberto Mancini in charge of the national team for a second spell. After matchday one against Belgium, where Italy played at a slow tempo and were hardly threatening, the Azzurri improved against Turkiye. That was also due to Mancini making changes to the formation, by giving a debut to right-back Michael Kayode and playing with two number 10s, Giacomo Raspadori and Sebastiano Esposito, behind Inter’s striker Pio Esposito.
Now, this is a big test for Italy: a match against a top European nation, as the Azzurri have not beaten an opponent of such high caliber since their win in Paris over two years ago. Since then there has been an away 3-3 draw against Germany, but the aggregate 7-1 defeat to Norway in the recent World Cup qualifiers is still fresh in the memory and a reminder of how far down in the pecking order Italy have fallen.
It’s unlikely Italy will keep at bay one of the world’s best attacks, but if they play with the same rhythm and purpose they did in Bursa on Monday, the outcome of this match is not a forgone conclusion.
Team News & Predicted Lineups
Zinedine Zidane is expected to make a few changes to the team that beat Belgium 1-0. Kounde is expected to return at right-back, with Roma’s Manu Kone and Milan’s Adrian Rabiot slotting into midfield. Up front, Ousmane Dembélé will play in the centre-forward role, with Olise and Doue, who came on in the second half on Monday, starting behind him, with Bradley Barcola on the left.
After making eight changes for Monday’s win in Turkiye from the side that lost at home to Belgium, Roberto Mancini is expected to shuffle his line-up again. Mancini and Calafiori are expected to return to the four-man defence. Barella is likely to replace Fagioli in midfield. Up front, the Azzurri might play with the same front-three that started in Bursa against Vincenzo Montella’s men.
France Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Kounde, Jacquet, Lacroix, Diouf; Kone, Rabiot; Olise, Doue, Barcola; Dembele
Italy Predicted Lineup (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Kayode, Bastoni, Mancini, Calafiori; Tonali, Barella, Frattesi; Raspadori, S. Esposito, P. Espositoini, Calafiori; Tonali, Barella, Frattesi; Raspadori, S. Esposito, P. Esposito
| 1Guillaume Restes |
| 5Jules Kounde |
| 6Eduardo Camavinga |
| 8Manu Kone |
| 12Bradley Barcola |
| 13Andy Diouf |
| 15Leny Yoro |
| 17Maxence Lacroix |
| 18Maghnes Akliouche |
| 19Esteban Lepaul |
| 23Jean Butez |
| 3Matteo Ruggeri |
| 4Samuele Ricci |
| 11Gianluca Scamacca |
| 12Marco Carnesecchi |
| 13Guglielmo Vicario |
| 14Mohamed Alì Zoma |
| 15Issa Doumbia |
| 17Daniel Maldini |
| 18Nicolo Barella |
| 21Antonio Vergara |
| 22Giovanni Di Lorenzo |
| 23Gianluca Mancini |
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